After a time in which conventional wisdom decreed that Covid-19 definitely arose from natural zoonosis, by crossing from an animal to humans in Wuhan's wet market, and that anyone who said otherwise was a conspiracy theorist, there is now a wealth of evidence emerging that a lab leak is a distinct possibility, and that Covid may well have arisen as a result of genetic engineering experiments on coronaviruses conducted by Chinese and American scientists.
This blog contains links to books, articles and videos for people who would like to explore these ideas further.
A WHO pandemic pact would leave us at China’s mercy. By Matt Ridley.
Published on: Saturday, 14 May, 2022
This book was published in November 2021 and contains a comprehensive review of the evidence so far.
One of their most telling arguments concerns the furin cleavage site. Furin cleavage sites can occur naturally, but they are also commonly used by genetic engineers.
They also appear to be significant in determining whether a virus can cross from an animal to infect humans.
The furin cleavage site in SARS-CoV-2’s genome reads CGG-CGG-GCA-CGT, which is the recipe for the amino acids arginine-arginine-alanine-arginine, RRAR. It lies in a key spot in the spike gene of the virus, immediately upstream of the point where the furin will cleave the spike in two.
The history of this niche field of research goes back thirty years. Since then, spotting furin cleavage motifs in virus proteins has become a bit of a hobby among virologists, a potentially useful way of gauging how dangerous a virus might be. They always begin and end in arginine (R). The cut happens just after the last R. In SARS-CoV-2, the motif is RRAR; in mouse hepatitis virus, it is RRAHR; in bovine coronavirus, RRSRR; in OC43, a common cold coronavirus, RRSR.
Yet other coronaviruses, including SARS, manage to be infectious without furin cleavage at the S1/S2 boundary. The truth is that scientists still do not fully understand what is going on. This is why several labs around the world have been deliberately inserting furin cleavage site sequences into the spike genes of different coronaviruses to see how this changes the virus’s ability to infect different types of cells.
By 2019 the practice of artificially introducing or removing furin cleavage sites in the spike genes of coronaviruses, or their equivalents in other viruses, had become a routine experiment in virology.
One such study, which featured as co-authors Zhengli Shi and Ralph Baric, was Two Mutations Were Critical for Bat-to-Human Transmission of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) Coronavirus, saying then that such cleavage sites ‘played critical roles in the bat-to-human transmission of MERS-CoV, either directly or through intermediate hosts’
In the universal genetic code for all organisms – the dictionary that translates DNA or RNA language into protein language – there are six different words encoding the amino acid ‘arginine’ (R): AGA, AGG, CGG, CGC, CGA and CGT (the last being CGU in RNA). These three-letter words are called codons. Within the genome of SARS-CoV-2, the commonest codon for arginine is AGA and the rarest is CGG. Yet the furin cleavage site in SARS-CoV-2 has two of the latter in tandem: CGG-CGG.
A project to search all sarbecoviruses for CGG-CGG doublets found none, except for the one in the furin cleavage site of SARS-CoV-2.
It is true that virologists altering the sequences of viruses to make them more compatible with human cells are more likely to use CGG codons for arginine than nature does, which makes the CGG-CGG doublet in the furin cleavage site of SARS-CoV-2 suspicious at least. But the argument is suggestive, rather than conclusive, and nature is clearly capable of using these codons.
What is suspicious is that this fact was completely neglected in Zhengli Shi's paper 'A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin' published in Nature 3rd Feb 2020. She was one of the scientists who had been at the forefront of research into the importance of the furin cleavage site making MERS and SARS into human pathogens. Then she studies the SARS-Cov-2 virus which has the very rare CGG-CGG doublet furin cleavage site, and curiously ignores it.
As Chan and Ridley remark: 'It is one of the strangest omissions in a scientific paper. The sarbecovirus specialists were clearly paying extremely close attention to this part of the genome, but the most remarkable feature of all escaped their attention. Not one of them appears to have said, when reading a draft, are you sure you are not leaving out the most interesting bit?'
'It is as if you discover a unicorn and you compare it with other horses, describing in detail the hair and the hooves, but you don’t mention the horn.'
'This was also the paper that first mentioned RaTG13 by its new name and did not connect it to the 4991 SARS-like virus sequence published in 2016 or to the mysterious pneumonia cases in 2012 that had spurred Chinese research teams to scour the Mojiang mine for viruses. If this were the plot of a novel, the reader would think something was up.'
'Given that Dr Shi’s group had made chimeric SARS viruses and Dr Shi and co-authors had recently collaborated on a project studying parallel sites in MERS-like viruses, their silence on the unique furin cleavage site with critical implications when they published the first sarbecovirus genome is the dog that did not bark in the night-time.'
Hudson Institute discussion with the authors of 'Viral: The Search for the Origin of COVID-19'.
UK House of Commons Science and Technology Committee panel discussing the search for the origin of COVID-19. 16th December 2021.
Matt Ridley and Alina Chan begin speaking at 0:18:45.
A Reconstructed Historical Aetiology of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike
Birger Sørensen, Angus Dalgleish & Andres Susrud.
ABSTRACT
To discover exactly how to attack SARS-CoV-2 safely and efficiently, our vaccine candidate Biovacc-19 was designed by first carefully analysing the biochemistry of the Spike. We ascertained that it is highly unusual in several respects, unlike any other CoV in its clade. The SARS-CoV-2 general mode of action is as a co-receptor dependent phagocyte. But data shows that simultaneously it is capable of binding to ACE2 receptors in its receptor binding domain. In short, SARS-CoV-2 is possessed of dual action capability. In this paper we argue that the likelihood of this being the result of natural processes is very small.The spike has six inserts which are unique fingerprints with five salient features indicative of purposive manipulation. We then add to the bio-chemistry a diachronic dimension by analysing a sequence of four linked published research projects which, we suggest, show by deduction how, where, when and by whom the SARS-CoV-2 Spike acquired its special characteristics. This reconstructed historical aetiology meets the criteria of means, timing, agent and place to produce sufficient confidence to reverse the burden of proof. Henceforth, those who would maintain that the Covid-19 pandemic arose from zoonotic transfer need to explain precisely why this more parsimonious account is wrong before asserting that their evidence is persuasive, most especially when, as we also show, there are puzzling errors in their use of evidence.
New book on COVID-19 origins was plagued by censorship. 31st October 2021.
Lab-Made? SARS-CoV-2 Genealogy Through the Lens of Gain-of-Function Research. A longish article in which a believer in the zoonotic theory comes to find the lab-leak theory credible.
'So it was then, in pursuit of arguments against the virus’s lab-madeness, that I got infected by the virus of doubt. What was the source of my doubts? The fact that the deeper you dive into the research activities of coronavirologists over the past 15–20 years, the more you realize that creating chimeras like CoV2 was commonplace in their labs.'
Photos of collaborators in chimera research, including Ralph Baric from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and Zhengli-Li Shi, from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, photo taken in Wuhan, October 2018.
'The article highlights the scale of dangerous gain-of-function research that has been and is going on in virology. The Covid-19 pandemic really exposed its huge risks in the face of few benefits: GOF research hasn’t protected us from this outbreak, hasn’t provided us with any effective treatments or vaccines in time to save hundreds of thousands of lives lost to CoV2, and if there is even a 0.1% chance GOF research caused the whole thing, that chance is too high.'
Did the virus spring from nature or from human error?
By Carolyn Kormann. The New Yorker. October 12, 2021
‘Beyond doubt’ there was an ‘incident’ at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Sky News documentary 'What really happened in Wuhan' 20th September 2021.
A whistle-blowing site releasing suppressed information.
Excellent review article: Did the Coronavirus Escape From a Lab?
Jamie Metzl's blog summarizes the arguments: Origins of SARS-CoV-2. A comprehensive survey.
The first Yan report:
The second Yan report:
The case against Peter Daszak being part of the W.H.O. investigating team.
A British scientist is facing calls to step down from two key inquiries into the origins of Covid-19 after leading the global battle to dismiss suggestions that it might have leaked from a Chinese laboratory linked to his charity.
Peter Daszak’s organisation channelled cash to Wuhan scientists at the centre of growing concerns over a cover-up – and also collaborated on the sort of cutting-edge experiments on coronaviruses banned for several years in the United States for fear of sparking a pandemic.
Peter Daszak and the Virus The Gatestone Institute. 23rd July 2021.
The United States claims it has explosive new evidence that proves COVID-19 leaked from a Wuhan research lab and is demanding action. January 17th, 2021.
Wuhan virus lab scientist thought to be COVID-19 ‘patient zero’ still missing despite year-long search. January 18th, 2021.
The WHO investigation into the origin of Covid-19 was announced on 8th February in a press conference.
Their investigation into the pandemic was little more than an appeasement of Beijing.
Abstract.
There is a near consensus view that SARS-CoV-2 has a natural zoonotic origin; however, several characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 taken together are not easily explained by a natural zoonotic origin hypothesis. These include: a low rate of evolution in the early phase of transmission; the lack of evidence of recombination events; a high pre-existing binding to human ACE2; a novel furin cleavage site insert; a flat glycan binding domain of the spike protein which conflicts with host evasion survival patterns exhibited by other coronaviruses, and high human and mouse peptide mimicry. Initial assumptions against a laboratory origin, by contrast, have remained unsubstantiated. Furthermore, over a year after the initial outbreak in Wuhan, there is still no clear evidence of zoonotic transfer from a bat or intermediate species.
Given the immense social and economic impact of this pandemic, identifying the true origin of SARS-CoV-2 is fundamental to preventing future outbreaks. The search for SARS-CoV-2’s origin should include
an open and unbiased inquiry into a possible laboratory origin.
This is a panel discussion by five eminent people.
Chris Isham (Moderator), American journalist & Former Chief of CBS News’ Washington Bureau• Jamie Metzl, Founder and Chair, OneShared.World & Author of Hacking Darwin• Andy Weber, Senior Fellow, Council on Strategic Risks• Miles Yu, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute• David Asher, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Wuhan Institute of Virology 'highly probably' the source of COVID-19. David Asher was the former lead investigator who spearheaded a taskforce for the US government into the origins of COVID-19.
Could an accident have caused COVID-19? Why the Wuhan lab-leak theory shouldn't be dismissed. Opinion piece in USA Today 23rd March 2021.
Ex-CDC Director Robert Redfield believes COVID-19 came from Wuhan lab. 26th March 2021. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) is a major centre based in Atlanta Georgia.
By Nicholas Wade, May 5, 2021. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Interview with Nicholas Wade
Letter in Science by several scientists. Investigate the origins of COVID-19 14th May 2021.
Leaked Chinese document reveals a sinister plan to ‘unleash’ coronaviruses. The Weekend Australian 8th May 2021.
But....
Extensive literature review of journal articles about Covid-19 origin.
Posted on June 7, 2021 by Sainath Suryanarayanan
Here is a reading list about what is known and not known about the origins of SARS-CoV-2, accidents and leaks at biosafety and biowarfare laboratories, and the health risks of gain-of-function (GOF) research, which aims to increase the host range, transmissibility, infectivity or pathogenicity of potential pandemic pathogens. U.S. Right to Know is conducting research on these topics and posting the findings in their Biohazards Blog.
"In an unlikely but conceivable turn of events, what if that scientist becomes infected with the virus, which leads to an outbreak and ultimately triggers a pandemic?" Fauci wrote in the American Society for Microbiology in 2012, adding "Many ask reasonable questions: given the possibility of such a scenario – however remote – should the initial experiments have been performed and/or published in the first place, and what were the processes involved in this decision?"
"Scientists working in this field might say – as indeed I have said – that the benefits of such experiments and the resulting knowledge outweigh the risks," Fauci continued. "It is more likely that a pandemic would occur in nature, and the need to stay ahead of such a threat is a primary reason for performing an experiment that might appear to be risky."
Uncovering the Origins of COVID-19: A Scientific Discussion.
Join Hudson Institute Senior Fellow and former Department of State COVID-19 lead investigator Dr. David Asher and experts Dr. Steven Quay and Professor Richard Muller for a discussion on the scientific evidence and politics surrounding the inquiries into the origins of COVID-19. After a detailed presentation by Dr. Quay of the scientific evidence for both the zoonotic and “lab leak” origin hypotheses, the speakers will assess the complicity of the Chinese government in the development and propagation of the pandemic. Professor Muller will address the reasons for the initial consensus that the origin of the pandemic was undoubtedly natural, and examine the evidence for this hypothesis as well as the hypothesis that COVID-19 emerged as a result of an accidental leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
The coronavirus sweeping the globe bears a “signature” that’s never been seen in this virus class before and came “completely pre-adapted to humans,” according to Atossa Therapeutics CEO Dr Steven Quay.
Interview of Dr Steven Quay by Sharri Markson.
Footage proves bats were kept in Wuhan lab
Did scientists stifle the lab-leak theory? Unherd 22nd July 2021
The world needs a proper investigation into how covid-19 started. The Economist 21st August 2021.
Why it's so tricky to trace the origin of COVID-19. National Geographic 11th September 2021
For people unfamiliar with the issues around Genetic Engineering, here is an article I wrote which explains some of it. It was published in The Ecologist in 1977.
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